Prepared by and sent from Jewish Federations of North America’s Israel Office 

  • US-Iran agreement unraveling as fighting resumes
  • No attacks on Israel at this stage
  • Ali Khameini’s funeral takes place more than four months after he was killed
  • No date set for elections yet, but new trends are emerging

Iran Agreement

  • The fragile US–Iran diplomatic framework appears to be unraveling. Over the past 48 hours, the US has carried out two major waves of strikes against Iranian military targets, with US Central Command reporting attacks on roughly 80 targets on the first day and approximately 90 more on the second, including air-defense systems, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance assets, and naval infrastructure.
  • Iran responded with missile attacks on US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, marking one of the most significant direct US-Iran military exchanges since the June memorandum of understanding was signed.
  • The latest tensions began because of escalating incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in violation of the memorandum of understanding with the US, has repeatedly said that vessels must follow routes approved by Tehran, and this week commercial ships—including a Qatari LNG tanker—were attacked while transiting the waterway, prompting US accusations that Iran is undermining freedom of navigation and violating the spirit of the agreement.
  • Tensions escalated further today as Jordan activated air-raid sirens after missiles launched from Iran were detected in Jordanian airspace, with reports indicating that Iranian missiles were aimed at a US military facility in the kingdom. Jordanian authorities said their armed forces were on high alert and later reported intercepting multiple missiles. The deteriorating security situation also affected regional aviation, with Israeli media reporting the diversion of an Ethiopian Airlines flight bound for Tel Aviv.
  • Iran did not formally claim responsibility for the attacks, but Iranian media suggested the vessels had disregarded Iranian navigation instructions. The incidents have alarmed Gulf governments and international shipping interests. Iran also accused the US of violating the agreement through military action and sanctions pressure.
  • US President Donald Trump publicly stated that he believes the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is effectively “over,” arguing that Tehran repeatedly violated the arrangement through attacks on shipping and US interests. At the same time, Trump has also claimed that Iranian officials have been reaching out seeking a renewed deal.
  • Qatar and other Gulf intermediaries continue to push for dialogue, as they remain focused on preventing a complete collapse of diplomacy, fearing the economic consequences of sustained instability in Hormuz. Qatar’s prime minister has urged both sides to uphold understandings reached during recent negotiations.
  • Israel has so far avoided involvement and has not taken part in this week’s US attacks on Iran. Similarly, no rockets or missiles have been targeted at Israel. Nonetheless, analysts widely view the collapse of US-Iran diplomacy as increasing the risk of renewed confrontation along multiple fronts, including with Israel. Notably, the IDF’s Home Front Command has not imposed restrictions or precautions in Israel, and everyday life continues as normal in the Jewish state.
  • Analysts in Israel have argued that the collapse of the US-Iran memorandum was driven less by ideology and more by Iran’s ongoing attempts to establish de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz. They note that Tehran attacked several commercial vessels not because diplomacy had already failed, but because an American-backed alternative shipping route along the Omani side of the strait was reportedly undermining Iran’s leverage. In this view, Iran concluded it was losing the economic battle and reverted to coercion against shipping, prompting the US military response and Trump’s declaration that the agreement was effectively dead.
  • Many say that the region may be returning to a “no war, no peace” reality, as existed before the memorandum of understanding was signed. In this view, Israel feels relatively comfortable because renewed sanctions and economic pressure leave Iran weakened financially, while giving the Jewish state time to continue targeting Iranian proxies whose patron is increasingly constrained.
  • Over the weekend, hundreds of thousands of mourners took part in the days-long funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose coffin was carried through Tehran, Qom, and the Iraqi Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala before his planned burial in Mashhad. Iranian authorities presented the elaborate six-day procession as a demonstration of national unity and regime resilience following Khamenei’s death in the opening moments of the February US-Israeli strikes, while crowds chanted anti-American and anti-Israel slogans and senior Iranian officials used the events to emphasize continuity under the country’s new leadership. Three of Khamenei’s sons — Meysam, Masoud, and Mostafa — took part in the funeral ceremonies, while his successor and son, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, was notably absent from public events. There has been no confirmed public appearance by Khameini since he became Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026. He has issued written statements and messages, but has not delivered a televised speech, released a verified video message, or attended major state events in person.

Lebanon

  • The shaky ceasefire on Israel’s north seems to be mainly holding. The US-brokered framework agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon two weeks ago aims to gradually end the current conflict, and links further Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to measurable progress by the Lebanese Armed Forces in taking control of territory and disarming Hezbollah. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the arrangement as “the beginning of the beginning” toward a broader peace process, but implementation remains slow and uncertain.
  • Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has rejected the agreement, calling it invalid because it conditions Israeli redeployments on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah continues to insist that Israel must first end its military presence in southern Lebanon, while Israel and the Lebanese government maintain that restoring full state control requires Hezbollah’s removal as an independent armed force.
  • Israel has said that it will maintain its security buffer zone and continue operations as long as Hezbollah retains military infrastructure near the border.
  • The Israel-Lebanon talks and agreement were partly enabled by the US-Iran ceasefire framework, and some analysts warn that if US-Iran hostilities continue to escalate—particularly around Hormuz—Hezbollah could come under renewed pressure from Tehran to resume more active operations against Israel. That risk has increased as the US-Iran agreement itself appears increasingly fragile.
  • Internal Hezbollah documents were released by the IDF this week that suggested that despite years of coordination with Hamas and Iran, former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hesitated to join Hamas’s October 7 attack because he was unconvinced about the strategic objectives and risks. Nonetheless, the information shows that Hamas was expecting Hezbollah to join them, and that the results of such a coordinated attack could have been dramatically more catastrophic for Israel. The documents reinforce a theme that continues to shape Israeli assessments today: Hezbollah remains a major threat, but it does not automatically enter every confrontation on Iran’s behalf.

Elections and Politics in Israel

  • While no election date has yet been set, polling day will likely be on October 20 or 27, just a few weeks before the US midterms.
  • Despite no official date, the political system is increasingly in election mode, with formal campaigns set to launch soon. Polling tends to show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest single party, but most surveys suggest that neither the current governing coalition nor the opposition bloc has a clear path to a 61-seat majority. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkott’s Yashar Party continues to advance in the polls, emerging as the strongest force in the anti-Netanyahu block.
  • For now, the dominant political issue remains the Haredi draft exemption controversy. Last week, the Knesset approved a first reading of the controversial “Basic Law: Torah Study”. Supporters argue that Torah study deserves constitutional recognition as a core Jewish value, while critics view the move as a thinly veiled effort to exempt yeshiva students from military service at a time when many Israelis have spent hundreds of days in reserve duty and the IDF is clearly broadcasting an urgent need for significant additional manpower. The dispute has strained relations both within the coalition and between the government and the broader public. The Haredi parties are withholding their support for any coalition legislation until the law is passed.
  • Read about “The Hidden Economic Danger in the Basic Law on Torah Study.”
  • Thousands of ultra-Orthodox protesters clashed with security forces this week outside the Beit Lid military base, where a number of Haredi “draft-dodgers” are being held. Several dozen protesters briefly breached the perimeter of the base and entered a restricted military area before being removed by soldiers. According to the IDF, the demonstrators acted violently and clashed with security forces, though no serious injuries were reported.
  • Another controversial bill advancing through the Knesset would temporarily suspend arrests, investigations, and other enforcement measures against Haredi yeshiva students who are eligible for military service but have not enlisted. Supporters argue the measure is needed to ease tensions surrounding the draft dispute, while critics contend it effectively grants immunity to tens of thousands of draft evaders and undermines the principle of equality before the law. The proposal comes as authorities have recently stepped-up enforcement against Haredi non-enlistees following High Court orders, including restrictions on government benefits and increased efforts to enforce draft obligations. Opponents argue the legislation is likely to face constitutional challenges and could pave the way for a longer-term arrangement preserving military exemptions for yeshiva students despite growing public demands for broader military service during wartime. See more here.
  • The draft issue is also reshaping the political map. Senior Likud figure Yuli Edelstein has broken with the party and is pursuing a new political framework, arguing that he can no longer support policies that preserve broad draft exemptions. He is expected to be joined by other center-right figures – such as former Israeli UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan – to form a new party that would likely not commit to either the pro- or anti- Netanyahu camps. Such a party could end up holding the balance of power after the elections.
  • Former communications minister and ex-MK Yoaz Hendel is attempting to position his new Reservists Party as a center-right movement built around military and national service, with the Haredi draft issue at its core. Hendel has repeatedly ruled out joining a coalition that includes parties seeking to preserve broad draft exemptions and this week announced that former MK Chili Tropper has joined the party as co-leader. They are currently exploring alliances with other figures including Yuli Edelstein. Negotiations with Benny Gantz are reportedly stalled over disagreements about whether Haredi parties could be included in a future government.
  • Many Israeli analysts have noted that the election is increasingly revolving around questions of national identity and military service rather than traditional questions of left-right security and diplomacy. This line of reasoning shows the central fault line in Israeli politics today as the balance between the state’s Jewish character and its civic-democratic character—an argument reflected in disputes over Haredi enlistment, judicial issues, and the role of religion in public life. In practical political terms, this means that the draft issue may prove even more significant electorally than Iran, Lebanon, or other foreign-policy questions.
  • Numerous members of the Israeli media have said they are puzzled by Netanyahu’s strong push to support legislation that the haredi parties are demanding, given its deep unpopularity in Israel. Critics argue that recent legislation on draft exemptions, judicial issues, and commissions of inquiry appears out of step with post-October 7 public sentiment. Supporters counter that Netanyahu is trying to hold together the only coalition currently available to him while keeping open a path to forming another right-wing government after the vote. The Jerusalem Post argued that the Prime Minister has chosen to focus his efforts on the coalition-building phase of the elections, rather than the actual public voting.
  • President Isaac Herzog, Central Elections Committee officials, and security officials have warned of potential attempts to interfere with or undermine public confidence in the upcoming election campaign. Some Israeli media have explicitly expressed concerns over segments of the population claiming that the “elections were stolen,” should their desired result not emerge once votes are counted. Some officials have called for cameras to be installed to live-stream counting.

Other Developments

  • Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor, Obama chief of staff, and potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, delivered a sharply critical speech at Tel Aviv University yesterday, warning that the US-Israel relationship is “at a crossroads.” Emanuel argued that unconditional American support for Israel can no longer be taken for granted, criticizing the Netanyahu government over Gaza policy, settlement expansion, settler violence, and what he described as Israel’s growing international isolation. He called for a “new direction” in the relationship, including sanctions on Israelis involved in attacks on Palestinians and on entities supporting settlements, and suggested Israel should no longer receive uniquely subsidized US military assistance. The speech drew considerable attention in Israel, with some supporters applauding his message of “tough love” while critics viewed it as reflecting the Democratic Party’s increasingly critical stance toward Israel.
  • A growing dispute has emerged between Israel, Turkey, and the United States over reports that the Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on Ankara and allowing Turkey back into the F‑35 fighter jet program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly urged Washington to block the sale, warning that providing advanced stealth aircraft to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government would “destroy” or significantly upset the regional balance of power, citing Turkey’s increasingly hostile rhetoric toward Israel and its support for Hamas. Turkish leaders have dismissed the objections, with Erdoğan arguing that Turkey is a NATO ally entitled to acquire the aircraft and expressing confidence that the US will eventually deliver the jets. The issue has become a major point of tension, even as the proposal still faces significant legal and political hurdles in the US Congress because of Turkey’s continued association with the Russian S‑400 missile defense system.
  • Israel’s Supreme Court dispute has reemerged as a major public issue after some government ministers signaled they may not fully accept a court ruling regarding the composition of the Second Authority for Television and Radio. Critics warned that the confrontation risks reigniting the constitutional and judicial tensions that dominated Israeli politics before October 7, while coalition leaders argue the court has exceeded its authority.
  • The Knesset this week advanced in its first reading a coalition-backed bill to establish a politically appointed commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the October 7 attacks. The proposal would create an alternative to the traditional state commission of inquiry, whose members are selected by the Supreme Court president, and has drawn fierce opposition criticism, with opponents arguing that politicians should not have significant influence over a body investigating decisions made by the political leadership before and during the attack. The bill must still pass additional readings before becoming law.
  • In a development that received considerable public attention, former Gaza hostages Sasha Troufanov and Sapir Cohen were married this week. The wedding was attended by President and First Lady Herzog, former hostages, and families affected by October 7, and became a widely covered symbol of recovery and resilience after both were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz during the Hamas attack.
  • The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has eased some of its restrictions on flights to Israel, a sign of increasing confidence in regional air travel despite renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Israeli tourism and aviation officials welcomed the move, viewing it as another step toward restoring normal international travel patterns after months – and even years – of disruption.
  • The Israeli government has approved a new three-year rehabilitation plan worth approximately $17 million for survivors of the Nova and other October 7 southern music festivals, extending support through 2028. The program will provide continued mental-health and medical care, employment and rehabilitation services, substance-abuse prevention programs, and a new “single government address” to help survivors navigate services and benefits. Officials said the plan was developed following consultations with survivors and professionals and is intended to address the long-term needs of the roughly 3,600 festival-goers who have been recognized as victims of terrorism, many of whom continue to cope with lasting physical and psychological trauma.
  • A years-long IDF investigation has concluded that Private Yaakov Zarihan, who fell during Israel’s War of Independence in 1948 and whose burial location had remained uncertain for decades, was buried in a military cemetery at Kibbutz Kiryat Anavim near Jerusalem. The military said a headstone will now be added, bringing closure to a case that had remained unresolved for nearly eight decades.

The Jewish Agency for Israel

  • The Jewish Agency for Israel’s Fund for Victims of Terror, supported by Jewish Federations of North America, recently held its biannual amusement park event, bringing together 2,500 participants after delays caused by Operation Rising Lion. The gathering included 1,300 parents and children from families supported by the Fund, alongside 1,200 teenagers from frontline northern communities including Kiryat Shmona, Metula, Shlomi, the Upper Galilee, and Ghajar. For many participants, the day offered a rare opportunity for respite, connection, and a sense of normalcy amid ongoing security challenges.
  • The Fund also partnered with the “Or HaShachar Ha’oleh” organization to host a three-day retreat for 40 women whose spouses were severely wounded during the war. The participants, members of the “Iron Sisters” association, took part in resilience-building activities, art workshops, and facilitated support sessions designed to provide emotional relief and strengthen coping skills. For many of the women, it was the first time they had left home since their spouse’s injury.
  • In northern Israel, the Fund continues to expand therapeutic programming tailored to communities living under prolonged security pressure. In the Upper Galilee Regional Council, arts-therapy initiatives are reaching all students in grades 3–6, helping children process emotions and build resilience through creative expression. In Kiryat Shmona, specialized art-therapy workshops are supporting elderly residents who have returned home after lengthy evacuations, providing a structured environment to address loneliness, anxiety, and the challenges of rebuilding daily life.